[I read this article and there is a lot of the analysis I do NOT agree with. But what I will say is that the US Military, the Pentagon, have studied a war with Iran and they are NOT KEEN on it because to fight in Iran will be much worse than Iraq and Afghanistan put together. It will be a very heavy price they will pay.
First published in July 2019
President Donald Trump was recently interviewed on Fox Business and was asked about Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani’s statement calling the White House “Mentally Retarded” and if the U.S. was going to have a war against Iran and he said “Well, I hope we don’t, but we’re in a very strong position if something should happen. We’re in a very strong position. It wouldn’t last very long, I can tell you that.”
Well Trump is obviously in fantasy land or he is just incredibly ignorant of America’s recent history of losing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. troops have occupied Afghanistan since October 7, 2001 and Iraq since March 20, 2003. The Trump regime has no current plans of completely withdrawing U.S. troops from both countries especially those stationed in Iraq which is in close proximity to Iran.
But Trump says a war against Iran won’t last long. Well, let’s look at some of the facts in regards to what the U.S. military and its allies in the region would be facing if they pressed ahead with a military invasion.
For starters, Iran’s military personal is estimated to be close to a million active service members and reservists. If attacked, rest assured there would be close to an additional 40 million eligible men and women who would gladly pick up a rifle and every other weapon that is available and fight the U.S. military to the end no matter what their political beliefs are.
Iran has 82 million people and a land mass that is at least four times larger than Iraq. When it comes to military hardware, Iran has more than 1,634 combat tanks, more than 500 aircraft, 2,345 armored fighting vehicles, 34 submarines and 88 vessels. Iran has many capabilities including its most recent development of the Khordad 15 which is an air defense system that is “capable of tracking and shooting down six targets at the same time. The weapon was rolled out amid growing tensions around the Persian Gulf” according to RT.com. Washington will find out quickly that Iran is not Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya because once U.S. troops land on Iranian territory, body bags will begin to pile up rapidly.
An Attack on Iran will lead to a Worldwide Catastrophe
One Israeli statesman, diplomat and former head of the Nativ Service who specialized in the export of Jews to Israel through special operations by the name of Yakov Kedmi had some interesting perspectives on Vesti News, a Russian news program. Kedmi discussed what the U.S. and its allies in the region would be facing if a war with Iran were to take place:
“There are a few aspects, in purely military terms, it’s impossible to defeat Iran. It has a huge amount of territory. The Americans won’t have enough forces to deploy there. The logistics are crazy, it’s impossible for the Americans. So, there’s no opportunity to conduct a war against Iran and win it. And the pentagon knows that better than anyone. And they warned and said it”
Kedmi explains the stupidity of Washington’s overthrow scheme of Saddam Hussien and how much support Iran has when it comes to the Shia population in the Middle East:
“American’s don’t even understand what a stupid thing they did when they overthrew Saddam Hussein. Iraq is 60% Shia. You talked about Arabs in Iraq-the Shia, they’re Shia. In the South of Iran, there are Arabs who are Shia. And there are Arabs who are Shia and live in Iraq. And in Saudi Arabia, the area where the oil is developed is controlled by the Shia. And the majority of Kuwait’s population is Shia. 80 percent of Bahrain’s population is Shia. Then, such a big fire will start in the Middle East”
Washington’s close ally, Saudi Arabia will join the U.S. and Israel if a war against Iran is declared, but according to Kedmi, there is one small problem that Saudi Arabia can’t seem to handle, and that is Yemen:
“Saudi Arabia has a huge military budget. Its hands are tied. So it can’t do anything to tiny Yemen. They can’t do anything to the Houthi. Therefore, in this war of Persians against Arabs, the Persians will win. And this is another problem. It means a stronger Turkey. The Americans won’t remain whole after that war. The Middle East won’t remain whole. If anyone wins, it’ll be Russia”
Kedmi said that the U.S. military generals know that a war with Iran is unwinnable “They very well know that it’s impossible to do anything to Iran. They’ve warned about it repeatedly.” He continued “this tale about 120,000 isn’t a tale. The American Servicemen, just counted that in order to maintain the U.S. presence, 120,000 servicemen are required. These aren’t operational plans. When they ask the military what it’s necessary for that, they say that they need 120,000 servicemen in order to stay in the Middle East. They need one million servicemen to go to Iran. They don’t have them.”
What is interesting is what Kedmi said about the level of ignorance among the American government when it comes to Iran and the Middle East in general:
“This is a possibility that Iran could get nuclear weapons. We aren’t interested in anything else at all. Anything else means nothing. If we take a closer look, the United States’ goal in Iran is regime change in Iran, this is the main reason. Trump came to the conclusion that it’s almost impossible to conduct regime change in Iran. Why almost? It’s because American specialists, who think like Americans and have no idea what the Middle East is, think that the economic environment in Iran will lead to the collapse of that regime. They don’t understand what they’re talking about. The current government in Iran is stable. And nobody and nothing threats it. If Iranians will have half as much food, the government will stay. This is Iran. It isn’t Spain. That’s why everyone who thinks like Americans or Europeans, that if somebody doesn’t have enough of anything, the government will change. They treat Hamas and Iran like this. They don’t understand what they’re talking about”
At this point in time, Trump has only one option according to Kedmi and that is ” to conduct negotiations.” He continued ” and all of those shouts, that hysteria, are meant to make Iranians take part in negotiations. But he wants to do it and save face, so he wants them to ask for it.”
But the main point Kedmi wanted to drive home is the fact that Iran would develop a nuclear bomb within six months if the U.S. would launch an attack:
”And here’s my last point. The Americans don’t care about Iran’s nuclear weapons at all. Who has a problem with it except for us? Saudi Arabia? They don’t care. Americans would say that they’ll protect them like they protect Europe. Nobody cares about Iran’s nuclear weapons. Turkey does because it wants to make it. Saudi Arabia does but America isn’t interested. It’s an excuse for the Americans to put pressure on Iran and conduct regime change there. Speaking of the beginning of hostilities with Iran, it won’t be a short-term war. The Americans have never started a war when the pentagon didn’t want it. The military wanted a war in Vietnam. The military wanted a war in Iraq. When the military says don’t, no American politician would start a war. But the beginning of a long war against Iran will lead to Iran having nuclear weapons in six months”
Gil Barndollar, the director of Middle East Studies at the Center for the National Interest, and a former officer in the U.S. Marine Corps who served as an infantry division in both Afghanistan and in the Persian Gulf was interviewed by a the liberal website, Thinkprogress.org and was asked what it would take to defeat Iran. The article “Here is what war with Iran would look like: President Trump said war will mean the “official end of Iran.” But what would that take?’ by D. Parvaz where Barndollar had said “that even if the United States were to assume “completely permissive conditions” from Iran (no missiles, chemical, or biological attacks, etc.), it would still take “months to mobilize and stage forces” for such an operation.”
Barndollar said that a war of that magnitude would require a draft which would be unsettling for parents in the U.S. who have sons and daughters between the ages of 18 to 24 years old. Chicken hawks who avoided the draft during the Vietnam war like John Bolton who conveniently said “I confess I had no desire to die in a Southeast Asian rice paddy… I considered the war in Vietnam already lost” and the U.S. president himself who had 5 deferments (four for educational purposes and one for bone spurs in his heel) that allowed him to avoid the draft, have no problem sending troops into an already lost battle:
“The entire active duty U.S. Army and Marine Corps today totals a bit over 600,000 troops. That is not enough men to invade Iran. Even if you mobilized the entire National Guard and Reserves, you would not feel comfortable invading Iran with a force that size,” he said, adding that it’s hard to speculate about casualties and costs. What would be needed for sure, though, is a draft”
Barndollar said that Iran “is bordered by mountains on three sides and the sea on a fourth.” Barndollar also said that the 5,000 U.S. troops who are currently stationed in Iraq will not conduct an attack against Iran because Baghdad “has made its position on this clear: It won’t be used as turf for a proxy war with Iran.”
A World War II style amphibious landing “would be even more fraught with risk” Barndollar said “The Navy would be hard-pressed to muster enough amphibious assault ships to get even one Marine Expeditionary Brigade to the fight [with] only about 15,000 troops” meaning that “merchant marine ships would have to bring in the bulk of the force, something for which they are not prepared.” Let’s not forget that attempting to conduct an amphibious landing with U.S. naval forces on Iranian shores will face limpet mines, submarines, attack boats and its large arsenal of missiles which would be considered a suicide mission.
The Price of Oil and the World Economy
The price of oil is another factor Washington and its allies would have to consider. According to oilprice.com ‘War With Iran Could Send Oil To $250? by Vincent Lauerman claims that in the midst of war with Iran, the price of oil will be go to $250 dollars per barrel:
“In six short weeks there is tremendous damage to oil facilities on both sides, given their proximity to the Persian Gulf region, and to major cities as well. Iran, with its fleet of fast patrol craft and arsenal of short-range rockets, is able to briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the flow of about 18 million b/d to the world market, almost a fifth of global supply.
Brent spikes over US$250 per barrel, before falling back to around US$150 with the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinating an emergency release of oil stocks from strategic reserves of its member countries and China releasing significant volumes from its now substantial strategic reserve as well”
A new war in the Middle East would lead to a rapid increase in oil prices that would have an impact on the US dollar and the world economy. The U.S. population would soon realize that the idea of going to war against Iran is not just another bad idea, this time it’s a really bad idea. In Vietnam, the U.S. lost more than 58,000 military personnel with more than 150,000 wounded and don’t forget those who suffered from PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder)which numbers are in the hundreds of thousands with some veterans still suffering today. U.S. casualties would be far greater this time around. Would there be a draft? I don’t think so because the American public won’t stand for it since their children will be called upon to fight in another endless war, so any possibility of war would be dead on arrival if the draft were to be reinstated.
The Military-Industrial Complex doesn’t have enough troops to declare war on Iran. Israel will have its own hands full with Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to its northern borders if a war on Iran were to take place. Tensions between Israel and the Palestinians continue in the West Bank and Gaza, so Israel has its plate full. US military bases that surround Iran would be targeted by Iranian forces. Saudi Arabia’s oil fields and military forces would also be attacked as well. Then there is the Russia/China alliance that would back Iran once the war has begun. Questions remain; will it turn into a nuclear war? or would the U.S. military do an about-face and go back home once they realize that they are in a losing situation that they cannot win or control? One thing is certain, U.S. hegemony in the Middle East would be over once an attack on Iran where to take place, and that would be a good thing that will come out of this catastrophe.
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This article was originally published on the author’s blog site: Silent Crow News.
Timothy Alexander Guzman is a frequent contributor to Global Research.