VERY IMPORTANT: The Ukrainian Counter Offensive may be beginning slowly…

I’ve mentioned that the Russian Offensive was a huge flop and that it’s over – weeks ago. They seem to be crawling slightly forward in Bahkmut. This is very minor and of no importance to the war as a whole.

Now we’re going to see how good the Ukranians are with those Western tanks, especially the German Leopard 2’s. This is going to show us, what will happen in this war. Is it possible for the Ukranians to break through the Russian lines? This is the real answer we need to see. Everything rests on this. If this is a flop then the West and Ukraine have a serious problem.

The Russians have been digging in and building lots of defenses over the long front line. The core of their defenses are along a line about 800 Km long.

The first signs of some serious activity from the Ukranians occurred in the last week.

The most fascinating information is that Ukrainian troops have crossed the Dnipro river near Kherson and have set up a 20 Km position in what is, essentially, Russian territory. The Russian mil bloggers were the first to spot this, and this is now confirmed.

The Ukranians have apparently trained and had 6 tank brigades ready since the end of March. And 3 more tank brigades will be ready some time in May. They have received the 32 Western tanks that were promised along with hundreds of other armoured vehicles.

They will be fighting as a "combined arms force". This requires extremely complex tactics and it uses troops on the ground, infantry, artillery and even air power ALL CENTRED AROUND THOSE DEADLY TANKS.

The big question is WHERE and WHEN will the offensive begin. Everyone is pointing at a certain area in the "middle" of the long front lines.

Last year the Ukranians engaged in a lot of deception which hid their real goals. They misled people for months, and I was one, regarding their offensive. They might be busy with a new deception now, to hide the exact location of what they are doing.

When I looked at the map, it seems as if there are other possibilities other than the normal ones that we hear about a lot. But since the maps are not detailed, one really does not know enough.

One area that strikes me as very interesting is Mariupol. Nobody mentions it, and to me that just seems like a possibility. Of course, there could be others, including Crimea itself.

When some of the commentators say: "An attack here is obviously not feasible…" then I don’t just believe that because ALL MILITARY HISTORY IS FILLED WITH DECEPTIONS WHERE AN ARMY ATTACKED IN EXACTLY THE PLACE NOBODY THOUGHT IT WAS POSSIBLE.

So there may be many places that they will go. Also the weather is still not quite right either.

It is possible that the Ukranians might make several moves in different places either as a deception or to probe the Russians.

Every Ukrainian offensive has ALWAYS gone for a major target that has meaning, and in all cases it was a city. The city of Mariupol, strikes me as a possibility – but like I say this is just from a quick glance at a map.

Anyhow, we are definitely seeing the first Ukranian moves.

It seems that the total size of the Ukrainian force is about 40,000 men and they have been training for months.

There seems to be some information that the Russians might in the long run be building up an army of perhaps as big as 800,000 men. But I don’t think that will happen soon.

The entire direction of this war will be determined by those 40,000 Ukranians and the Western armour. Don’t underestimate the power of the non-Tank armour. Those weapons are good. The whole thing is teamwork – but very tight teamwork.

It seems to me as if by June, we’ll be seeing some serious action.

But unquestionably, for the first time in many months, something is now clearly a foot on the Ukrainian side and it’s going to get really interesting.

Before I forget, it seems as if the Ukranians are also doing test runs with drones and other weapons to ensure that they can reach all parts of Crimea.

There are definite signs that the Ukranians are looking and testing and checking things out.

They will, very likely, want to draw the Russians AWAY from the main area they want to attack. This is known in military terms as a feint. They will definitely be doing such things.

It is looking as if we will know within 4-8 weeks whether the Ukranians can punch a hole through the Russian lines.

This will be very interesting to see.