[Trump's trade war on China is fantastic, because I hate the Chinese and see them as a Jewish-created super-threat to the entire Western world. Israel loves China. Now Britain and the USA are slave dogs to bad, malicious Jewish ideas. This trade war might cause massive upheavals for the USA and the UK but it will FORCE a rethink and a restructure of business. The key thing here is that if the West can move AWAY from using China and rather bring back industries and business into Western nations it will be HEALTHY and will TAKE THEM AWAY from being the lap dogs and slaves to the Jewish Globalist nonsense. Get the industries, the science and the jobs BACK to the USA and Britain and the rest of the West. This will cause a restructure. Even this COVID 19 lockdown nonsense actually has many more BENEFITS than negatives. It is also bad for Jewish globalism. I saw that Israel alone had its economy crash by 28% in a single quarter!!!!! That is WONDERFUL! Bringing business and industry and science back to the West is fabulous. Then of course there are the massive problems that Western withdrawal from China results in. Another nasty, but good part of COVID, which may shock you, is the destruction of the high dependence on tourism in Europe and the West in general. This is an industry that allows too much globalism to be at work instead of allowing the West to focus on things it needs. You may be shocked by my take on this, but this, ultimately FORCES the West to look for LESS FRIVOLOUS methods of building the economy, and that's critical. The tourism industry will revive, but I think all in all, COVID and all these issues have caused big things which will be EXCELLENT for the West and force the West on a LESS FRIVOLOUS and more NATIONALISTIC path forward. Trump's trade war may be one of his greatest contributions to the USA, the West and Whites. I'm delighted that he fought it with energy and it will cause a MASSIVE RESTRUCTURE of the West's economy. Ditto for COVID. The RESTRUCTURE will be excellent. It will make our race and civilisation stronger by getting rid of these very unhealthy Jewish tendencies to loving our enemies, especially China. Jan]
The ongoing US-China trade war and talks delays could cost small and medium-sized businesses as much as $750bn, according to one attempt to quantify its scale.
The figures, published by trade finance provider Stenn Group, come as US president Donald Trump’s moves against social media apps TikTok and WeChat, coupled with further restrictions on telecoms group Huawei announced on 17 August, indicate the economic tensions between the two countries are unlikely to abate anytime soon.
Neil Campling, the head of technology, media and telecoms stocks at Mirabaud Securities, said in a note on 18 August that the intellectual property war between the US and China, particularly in the field of semiconductors and mobile-phone chips, had “reached the point of no return”.
Also released on 18 August, the Stenn survey polled 706 senior decision makers at medium-sized businesses across the UK, US and Chinese markets, and took place at the end of 2019.
According to Stenn’s figures, UK firms have reported a bigger hit to their bottom lines than their US counterparts — British firms put the cost at $3.9m on average, while US business leaders said $3.7m.
To gauge the scale of the hit across the whole economy, Stenn totted those figures up as if every medium and large-sized firm in the UK and US — more than 200,700 firms in all — suffered those same average costs. That calculation leads to figures of $170.1bn for the UK and $583bn for the US.
Worst-hit, however, were the Chinese firms in the survey, who said the tariffs would cost them $4.46m each on average. Almost half of them (48%) said their operating costs would increase and more than half (56%) said their supply-chains had been hit.
In the UK, 21% of businesses said that their operating costs had risen; and 30% reported having seen a reduction in business. In the US, those figures were 40% and 26%. In both countries, only 9% of the business leaders said their firm was benefiting from the ongoing tensions.
The research also found that 35% of leaders were making “long-term strategic changes to their business” in order to protect themselves from the effects of the trade war and a possible recession; a third said they were switching suppliers to outside of China. The proportion was similar in the US.
More recent consensus appears to dovetail with the views found in Stenn’s survey. Fund managers overseeing a combined $490bn collectively judge the trade war as the second-biggest risk to the global economy; it was cited by 19% of them in Bank of America’s regular monthly survey as the largest threat, behind a second wave of Covid-19 on 35%.
That survey, published on 18 August, also showed the rising US-China tensions had come much more into the foreground in the past few weeks. In July, only just over 5% of Bank of America’s respondents said it was the top tail-risk, while well over half of them were preoccupied by a potential second wave of the virus.
With the US election due in November, commentators do not see any quick resolution for the tensions. Milan Cutkovic, a market analyst at AxiCorp, said in a note on 18 August: “Market participants are carefully monitoring the rising geopolitical tensions. The US has announced further restrictions against the Chinese tech giant Huawei yesterday, and it is only a matter of time until Beijing will see itself forced to take countermeasures.
“This in return will likely prompt US President Trump to ramp up the confrontation with China, ahead of the US Presidential election in November.”
At Mirabaud, Campling said that a trend of “increasing Chinese-backed investments in the US”, particularly in the semiconductor industry, lay behind concerns that led to the Huawei chip technology ban. But he added that both Huawei and China have been quickly building their domestic capabilities in integrated circuitboards in recent years, and the US move is unlikely to hobble the firm.
Campling said: “[Huawei] has been stockpiling components for months and has surged to become the #1 smartphone manufacturer in the world… despite previous US sanctions and policies, loopholes and some temporary permissions, Huawei has been able to continue without significant effect.
“China cannot build a total, comprehensive domestic supply chain and industry overnight, but it is moving fast. The Integrated Circuit industry in China grew 40% year-on-year in 2018 and accounted for all of the global IC growth in 2018. There are already 23 new China 12” IC fabs in production. How quickly they come on stream and ramp volume production is difficult to track, but the groundwork has certainly been laid.”
“No resolution will come until after the US presidential election in November,” said Kerstin Braun, president of Stenn Group, in a statement. “Any phase two deal will be long-awaited good news for global trade, which took a hit from the tariff war in 2019 to the tune of $420bn in lost revenue for exporters.”
She added: “For businesses, it will help to provide some relief at a time when firms are seriously struggling to deal with the financial impact of Covid-19.”