Video: WHY CHINA WILL LOSE & BE TORN APART IF IT INVADES TAIWAN – My Military Analysis

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[I did make a number of important points earlier in an article about the Taiwanese because they were the allies of South Africa during the time of Apartheid. You can read about that here: https://historyreviewed.best/index.php/warning-ww3-my-military-analysis-lots-of-scare-stories-of-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-my-assessment/ Here's a very good little news video from India about the status. Take special note of how many troops it is estimated will be needed to invade Taiwan. See my analysis below the video. NB: Rest assured the dumb Chinese communists would NEVER be able to invade Canada either, and they will NEVER dare touch America itself. The only hope for the retarded Communist Chinese would be if they could NUKE their potential target BEFORE launching an actual invasion force. Don't get too worried about the retarded Chinese. See my full military analysis below. Jan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vw01undU8_k

My ANALYSIS:
o The only hope for the Chinese to invade Taiwan is to nuke them beforehand. Since that is TOTALLY UNLIKELY, all further Chinese efforts are TOTALLY DOOMED – as I will explain below.

o Here is a full analysis of the Chinese Military power now, versus that of Taiwan: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?form=form&country1=china&country2=taiwan&Submit=COMPARE

o As the video mentioned you need at least 2 million Chinese troops in order to invade Taiwan. I agree with this figure. The problem with this figure is that the Taiwanese. In the above you’ll see that the total size of the entire Chinese army is 2.1 million. So that would mean that in order to invade Taiwan the ENTIRE Chinese army would have to be shipped to Taiwan leaving virtually nobody left to defend China. China would have to call up it’s rather pathetic reserve of 500,000 troops. The Indians and other nations would lick their lips if the Chinese were dumb enough to do this.

o The Taiwanese military is 165,000 strong – which may seem small but in a small nation, which is being invaded by sea, they will easily be able to fight the incoming invaders. But the real killer is that Taiwan has reserves of 1.6 million troops. So in an emergency they’ll have as many troops as the incoming invaders.

o In the air war, the Taiwanese could give the Chinese fighters a hard time and will cause them losses, plus they’ll be able to bring ground-to-air missiles into play. The Chinese would take serious losses in their air power even if they won.

o The Taiwanese have over 1,000 tanks! That will present the Chinese with a nightmare. The entire tank strength of China is 3,000+. But how do you get them all to Taiwan?

o The Taiwanese have a decent strength in artillery and rockets and could easily fight the incoming ships.

o Taiwan’s greatest weakness are their four submarines. But if they are any good they could sink some of those incoming ships.

o The greatest weakness in any invasion for the dumb communist Chinese would be transporting 2 million troops across the sea to Taiwan. This is the real game changer.

THE ACHILLES HEEL OF THE CHINESE INVASION PLANS:

o The Chinese may have the use of their entire merchant fleet, but their merchant fleet and their naval power have daunting challenges which could result in TOTAL DISASTER for China.

o The ships and the fleet could easily be attacked and entire ships, filled with troops or tanks or heavy artillery, etc would sink to the bottom of the sea. Therefore it is impossible for the entire Chinese military force to reach Taiwan. They would take heavy losses. Their merchant fleet would be open to easy attack.

o The Chinese preparations would be on such an enormous scale that it would be easily evident and very easy to follow. Each convoy would be easy to track. The element of surprise would be gone.

o The Taiwanese would easily be able to position their airforce, navy and army to meet any one of the invading forces and fight them and destroy them in detail.

o It is most unlikely, if not impossible for the entire Chinese army to go to Taiwan in one shot. This means ships would have to sail back and forth and reload. Thus Taiwan’s forces would NEVER have to face the entire Chinese army. They would have more than adequate ability to fight off and destroy those who manage to get there.

o It is virtually impossible for the entire Chinese fleet to arrive at Taiwan at the same time. Even if the ships arrive a few hours apart it will give the Taiwanese a chance to fight one group and smash them before turning their attention to another group.

o The main strength of the Taiwanese are their frigates who should be able to put up quite a fight. The Chinese Navy is not that strong. So any resistance will mess things up big time for an enormous, vulnerable fleet.

o The Taiwanese can lay mines at sea to cover the main invasion routes – this will present serious problems.

o An enormous logistics problem, a true nightmare, is how to withdraw and transport 2 million Chinese troops from across China to then get them to ports to put them on ships. This will be a huge nightmare of a problem and would take a long time. Weeks at the very least, and possibly longer – leaving China’s borders undefended.

o Depending on which ports the invasion fleet comes from the ships would take between 10 hours to more than a day to arrive at Taiwan.

o So instead of Taiwan facing an enormous fleet that would overload their beaches and ports with millions of Chinese pouring in, the reality would be a very wide area with ships coming from many directions – but they would be very vulnerable.

o The Chinese navy is too small to protect this large number of ships.

o Thus if the Taiwanese could sneak out their 4 submarines and would guide them in on vulnerable Chinese merchant ships, they would have a field day sinking the defenceless merchant ships. The Taiwanese submarines would probably have such a field day that they would run out of torpedoes. Entire ships would be sunk with all the troops and heavy weapons on board.

NOTE THE CHINESE MERCHANT VESSELS ARE DEFENCELESS.

o The weakest point in the entire attack would be this long, thin, undefended set of merchant ships. The Chinese navy is so small that it would have to concentrate around Taiwan and therefore could never protect most of the merchant ships. If the Taiwanese had the capability they could have a field day even using aircraft to try to damage the incoming merchant vessels.

o If the Japanese could get involved they have 20 submarines and a LOT of aircraft!!! – The Japanese would be a game changer.

o If Australia could get involved – it has a fleet of 6 submarines. They would have fun.

o Even if Chinese ships finally reach Taiwan, the island is small and the army and airforce would be able to move around easily to attack incoming ships and fight whoever gets to the shore.

o If the Chinese could manage to get inland, to an airfield that is not damaged – then they could fly in troops which would be helpful. But this won’t be easy.

o The Chinese would suffer massive damage and casualties.

o The economic impact of an invasion of Taiwan would massively impact the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy would suffer incredible damage.

o The damage to ships and the loss of personnel would take the Chinese years to recover from at great cost.

The problems the Chinese would face in order to do this are so enormous that they would never do it. The cost and damage to China, for such a small goal doesn’t make it worthwhile. All of the Chinese economy and military would be needed and it’s not even certain they could win, even if they tried with everything they have. China would suffer massive economic and military harm from this venture. It would weaken China massively. There is no chance in hell of China actually trying this now, in 2021.