Ukraine War: What are the real chances Putin will use Nuclear weapons? – My Analysis

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I’ve been following this aspect for quite some time and been looking at the military angle as well as Putin’s own personality. One thing that is clear to me is that Putin is quite a propagandist actually. This side of Putin has only really come to the fore while I was analysing the Ukraine war. For example I was mystified as to why Putin did not shut down Ukraine’s Internet. So Putin’s politics and Putin’s comfort levels in speaking to a global audience thus come to the fore.

The (White) Russians themselves, have clearly been VERY SOFTENED by demented Western Liberalism and they’ve got used to shopping malls and thinking like the weak Liberals of the West. That is something that has surprised me. It is a topic of deeper discussion for later.

Putin and his top people have warned of going nuclear several times. The more I look at Putin and his warnings the more I think he is TOTALLY BLUFFING. Theoretically, he can use them. He does have them and the power to use them, but I think it is a 100% BLUFF. TOTALLY.

Would he EVER use them? Extremely unlikely. EXTREMELY unlikely. Not totally out of the ball park. But I’d say the chance of Putin using nukes in this war is 1%. Seriously. Very low chance.

Militarily, it also makes ZERO sense. If Putin used even one nuke, even a small one, America would be going crazy. The US Military would lose their shit. You must remember the US Military and the West CAN TELL WHEN NUKES ARE BEING PREPARED FOR USE. They can see and monitor whether the Russians are preparing to launch nukes.

So a surprise nuke attack is almost impossible. But, even a small nuke attack would make the politicians and military lose their minds. However, the Ukrainian army is so spread out that one nuke would barely do anything. For a nuke to have value it would have to hit something of note like a military base or better still a city. For it to have military value they’d have to fire several nukes – even small ones, and even then their total kills would probably not amount to more than a few thousands or tens of thousands at most. It really would not achieve much.

If they wanted nukes to be useful it would make more sense to drop a huge nuke on Kyiv for example. Or drop a big nuke on the top 5 biggest Ukrainian cities. That would really bring Ukraine to a grinding halt.

But if they did that, the Americans at the very least, would be firing nukes straight into Russia.

I really don’t think the Russians would even consider going down that path. The Russian science and technology and military is so backward compared to that of the West that the Russians know, if they really want nuclear war, that they will be the ones losing it.

So there is no rational chance even of the most hawkish Russian generals wanting to nuke on a big scale.

Meanwhile, small scale nukes would have literally only a TINY VALUE militarily, while having an ENORMOUS negative political and military value. It would immediately bring the big boys on to the scene.

The more I look at Putin, the less I think he will use nukes.

Putin also seems to lack a knowledge of many things where Russia is weak at and where the West has undermined Russia.

I will tell you that my estimation of Putin as a leader has gone down considerably in watching him during this Ukraine war.

The Russians used to be deadly, dangerous and brutal. Now the Russians are nothing like the threat they were 50 years ago.

I would not lose any sleep over this nuclear business. I also don’t see anything that Putin is doing that is really going to get Russia to win.

Putin has proved to me to be a politician. He is NOT a Hitler, Napoleon, Frederick the Great, Caesar, etc. None of the above. He’s probably not even at the level of Mussolini. He’s quite out of touch with many things and he lacks the IQ to actually even fix things.

There is no question that the US Military saw Putin’s Special Military Operation as a Mis-step, and that if countered militarily, that this could trip up Putin. I’ve watched many interviews where US and British Generals have spoken. There is no doubt in my mind that the Military guys saw this as an opportunity and they were pushing like crazy for the politicians to arm Ukraine. They saw an opportunity to stuff things up for Russia big time.

Remember, in the very early days of the war, everyone just thought Ukraine would collapse and for a few days nobody in the West was going to do anything. But it gave the US Military a chance to see things and they saw this could be stuffed up.

They’ve totally buggered up the Russian plans.

Putin’s best hope is to start other moves elsewhere, and it looks as if his efforts to start other wars in other areas have failed. He’s for example, not been able to get his best buddy in Byelorussia to come and join the war. They border on Ukraine and that leader is friendly and allows the Russians to use his country but that guy has not declared war on Ukraine.

Turkey is Putin’s best hope. That Turkey can cause problems. China is not making a move. Though there is a lot of noise.

Putin is on his own and Putin has egg on his face. He can fight on for years if he wants, but this has gone very badly for him. Even his annexation moves have come across as weak. He annexed territory which he lost a few days later.

So he’s losing all the way. And I don’t see anything that indicates to me that Russia is going to be able to reverse this easily. His best hope is that the West and Europeans grow bored with sending weapons to Ukraine.

I will deal with Turkey separately. I think that’s the most likely next war.