Ukraine War: Quick Update – 3 Months of War left for 2023 – Were Western Tanks a flop? – Jet Aircraft?

I’ve been following the Ukraine war. The key area, I think, is Kherson, but that river crossing point was totally stuffed up by the blowing of that dam. Ukrainians did manage to eventually get across the river and they have a small area there where they are functioning but they’ve been unable to advance. I still regard the blowing of that dam as the most strategic thing that happened that really stuffed up potential Ukrainian plans.

The Russians placed more mines in the areas in front of their trenches than any place in the world. The Russians mined an area the size of Florida. They must have used millions of mines. This is actually the main thing slowing the Ukrainians down. There are mines EVERYWHERE. So that strategy by Surovikin is working.

Surovikin has disappeared since the Wagner rebellion.

The Ukrainians have recaptured more territory in a month than the Russians did in several months. So the Ukrainians are moving forward.

But the key issue is the weakening of their supplies, and knocking out their artillery. We still need to wait for about 2 months to see the effects of that. The most important thing will be to watch the last month of fighting in the summer of this year, which is October.

We need to see if the Ukrainians can pick up speed and also what is the status of the Russian military forces.

Were Western Tanks a flop? The real goal of the Western tanks was that the Ukrainians needed to punch a hole through the Russian lines so that the Western tanks could run amuck BEHIND THE ENEMY LINES.

The inability of the Ukrainians to punch an actual hole behind the enemy lines is the real issue. The tanks themselves cannot withstand the Russian artillery and helicopter fire. That’s why they could not do more. And it seems the Ukrainians lost about 20% of their tanks/armour early in the offensive this year and that this method of fighting did not work.

So in theory the tanks could be awesome but in practice there was no place to use them.

Ukraine will begin getting jet aircraft in time for the summer of 2024. This will give them their first chance to begin challenging the Russians in the air. The Russians have air superiority.

In terms of tanks the Ukrainians now have slightly more tanks than Russia and in artillery they have been destroying the Russian edge. I think the key thing for them is the destruction of the Russian artillery as this is the backbone of the Russian defense. They have made massive progress since they got Himars a year ago.

Russian artillery is still very potent, but it’s being worn down.

The Russians have also been changing their tactics. Russians use a LOT more drones now and Russians are losing a lot less tanks.

So it is a battle of attrition but the Ukrainians are still losing less than the Russians. The Ukrainians are more efficient than the Russians. So in theory the Ukrainians could fight the Russians for YEARS.

This war could easily last another 5-10 years perhaps.

The Ukrainians are definitely determined to win back their territory, and their morale levels are good and they are determined.

The key thing to see is if the Ukrainians can advance FASTER by October. That’s the key thing to watch.