UKRAINE WAR ANALYSIS: As at 2024-11-13 – Ukraine is struggling a LOT but in Kursk they’re doing very well

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[This is an analysis I wrote yesterday in response to a voice note from one of my friends. Jan]

I listened to your voice note with interest. The Russians are hitting in Ukraine with everything they have. Russians are putting tremendous strain on Ukraine. But the Russians are paying for it in huge amounts of blood. Their casualties have never been higher some days over 1700 Russian casualties per day. The last month had the highest Russian casualties of the war. I think 40,000 or so for the month. Charts of the war show the war is intensifying. The Russians are trying to break the Ukrainians. The Russians even destroyed a dam the other day to flood areas where Ukrainian troops are and Ukrainians have to withdraw. The Russians blew up that huge lake at the start of the first year with a big Ukrainian offensive that later flopped. The north Koreans seem to be used in the Kursk region. The Ukrainians seem to have killed the north Koreans with ease. The Russians are trying bigger counter attacks in Kursk and I’m amazed that the Ukrainians don’t even need huge trench systems in defense. The Ukrainians are doing really well in kursk. The Russians are throwing everything they have to seize pokrovsk. They are slowly succeeding and the Ukrainians are taking very heavy strain. But the last map I saw about a week ago the Russians are still more than 6 km from pokrovsk. However the blowing of the dam may be a game changer. Putin may be throwing everything in for two reasons: to make Russia look good for this summer that is over and for negotiating. In Africa, especially Rhodesia, when the blacks sensed any form of white weakness they threw in everything they had. The final two years of the war was very brutal and out of control as the blacks hit with everything they had and they whites did the same. The blacks tried the same thing in South Africa many times to defeat the whites but the untold story in South Africa is that right to the end the whites were never defeated by the blacks even under the weakling fw De klerk. Blacks in South Africa never succeeded at a wider race war though they tried it more than once. They were beaten right to the end. But in Rhodesia it began going out of control. Though, whites probably killed more blacks in the final two years than ever before. Whites also played very dirty and it worked. This may include the slaughter of civilians using poisons and perhaps even anthrax. The communist training of the blacks by the Russians was to hit with full intensity. Even in South West Africa now Namibia when South Africa handed it over the blacks, cubans and Russians hit with everything they had over a nine day period. The South Africans and the swa whites crushed them but it was the same thing. So this notion that Putin is hitting with everything he has might even be non stop through winter. Russians are dying at a rate unmatched in history in terms of the number of casualties per square kilometre. It exceeds all wars in history. The Russians have a history of throwing meat waves off men in even if they aren’t very good. They just don’t care about casualties. Therefore all this talk of peace might just mean that Putin will fight like a wild animal until negotiations so that he gets the best deal. Luckily the Ukrainian strategy has been to conserve men but even so they’re taking big strain. I will discuss peace talks separately later. I don’t like frozen conflicts. It’s not a solution. Freezing the conflict might just benefit Ukraine and Europe more because time can be used to build new weapons. This war will be resumed some time. By freezing it trump is actually saving Putin’s career. A victory would have led to putin’s overthrow and perhaps even his death. I am skeptical about China. I don’t think a war started by China is something to fear at all. It will be a big failure. The fact that North Korean troops are being killed easily by white Ukrainian men is just more proof that Asia is not going to amount to much. The best Asians the Japanese are on the side of the West. The Chinese might be the rubbish of Asia.