Ukraine War: When is the Ukrainian counter-offensive starting? Why could Putin fight in February 2022?

This is a quick note. I had mentioned recently that the Russian Offensive was a huge flop. That is a firm conclusion. It doesn’t matter if the Russians capture Bahkmut. It’s been an insane waste of time and the needless killing and losses of manpower for a place that has no military value.

I had mentioned that I was thinking the Ukrainian counter-offensive would begin sometime from late March to late April – something in that range. But nothing has happened.

The reason I chose such an early date is because the Russians invaded last year in late February, which is quite abnormal. In Europe, due to the very cold winter weather it has been NORMAL for Whites to always start wars and campaigns in June. June is normally the month to launch attacks.

So when the Ukranians and Russians were fighting in late February last year and the Russians were even fighting in January/February this year, I assumed that despite the cold weather that things would continue along those lines the moment the tanks, especially the German Leopard’s arrive – which has already happened.

But now they say that there is still snow and cold weather. They say it is still wet and very muddy. This matches what the Germans experienced in WW2.

When I look back on the war, when Putin invaded last year, his forces moved on TARRED ROADS in February. So as long as the Russians remained on the tarred roads then his forced would not suffer from a MUD PROBLEM!

But, what is clear to me, is that the goal of having the Western tanks is that the Ukrainians want to try to break through Russian lines somewhere. If they limit themselves to tarred roads then they will have almost no options. There will be a small number of well defended bottle-necks they will have almost zero chance of breaking through.

But since they have 1,200 Km line they want to break through, it is better for them to try an attack that is through rural terrain. So they will have to wait for the mud problem to go away before they can do anything.

This will give them an LOT of places to attack and a LOT more opportunity to manoeuvre and places to find WEAK SPOTS.

I checked with a pal of mine in Bulgaria who follows the war closely. He said that the offensive will be much later than I’m expecting.

So I suspect that their offensive will start by some time between now and June.

We won’t know where or when.

The key thing I want to see is how well are the German Leopards and the armoured vehicles and the teams going to be able to function.

The key is to see if the Ukrainian offensive is a flop … or whether they can manage a breakthrough? And if so, how much of a breakthrough will it be?

This will give us a serious idea as to what is possible in this war.

If the Ukranians can’t break through the Russian lines, then they’re in big trouble.
We will have to see how that goes.

My own assessment is that the Americans, especially, have assessed the situation and they are convinced that the tanks, especially the German Leopards will make a difference. This is what we need to see.

If the war just bogs down into a slogging match over immovable lines then Ukraine is in trouble.