UKRAINE WAR: STALEMATE – A Brief Analysis

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The war is pretty much a stalemate. Putin is busy with his winter offensive. The "wins" that both sides have don’t really amount to much. The battle lines don’t move much. So these "victories" and "losses" really don’t mean much.

Putin seems to have found that large attacks on cities also damage the morale of the Ukrainians so he’s doing more of this. The only real threat of note is how much of Ukraine’s infrastructure he can destroy during the winter. This is something that hurts the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainians have a big weakness in air power, and now, they’re getting F16s in dribs and drabs.

The worst thing that has happened for the Ukrainians is that the war has stalemated for TOO LONG and the Russians are building small drones and building them on an industrial scale. Those tiny drones are what saved Ukraine in 2022. Now the Ukrainians are losing the edge. This is very bad for them. I see this as the worst thing that is happening to Ukraine.

The Western Military wargamed the Ukrainian offensive. But what amazes me, is how poor the end results were. I will deal with this issue later. I am stunned by the things they left out. I truly expected better from the planning of the Western military, especially the American military and the insane amount of information and technology they have access to.

So things are not looking good for Ukraine, however, Ukraine has the power to last probably at least another 2 years. I also cannot see the West, including Europe, just pulling the plug on Ukraine. I cannot see how Europe would accept the Russian border reaching Poland. The worst case scenario for a Ukrainian collapse would be a slow collapse. Russia won’t be winning any quick victories.

This war is a horrible stalemate, and that is a thing that happens in many Western wars. It’s a very bad thing. It is like WW1.

The best successes of Ukraine was their ability to attack with drones and bombs and missiles and sabotage deep into Russia. Their most awesome success of 2023, was their ability to destroy 20% of the Russian Black Sea fleet and to DRIVE IT BACK despite them hardly having ANY NAVY.

In terms of survival, this was excellent, because the Ukrainians need the sea route in order to survive economically. If they had not achieved this, they would have been heading toward collapse.

Putin is banking on Trump winning in America. Trump has said he’d bring an end to the war. There is a lot we will have to watch. For now, the Ukraine war will drag on for another year.

I think for the Ukrainians, the best thing to do is just dig in and fight defensively. The Ukrainians just don’t have the power to go on the offensive, and it hurts them badly. So they should just stick to defense.

Virus-free.