Ukraine War: Is the War now going to extend into the Black Sea? – Armour kill ratios – Hitler’s U-Boat war

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The Ukrainian counter offensive has slowed down, but not stopped, and they are still blowing up lots of ammunition and critical infrastructure in the rear. We will need to see what the Russian army’s state is like by October. Their current goal is to wear down the Russian army so that it collapses.

Tactically they are doing pretty well. They are killing more Russians than the losses that they inflict. Oryx, which is a Dutch website that counts armour losses independently, has shown that on average the Russians lose 2x as much armour as the Ukrainians do, but on some days they lose even 4x as much armour as the Ukrainians do.

The problem is that the war is bogging down all along the lines inside Ukraine where it is a lot like WW1. But, the Ukrainians are handling it well enough that the side that’s losing the most is Russia. So the Ukrainians can carry on for years, as long as they keep getting weapons from the West.

The military solution to this problem is to out flank each other. Either side could use Russian territory for example, as a way to outflank the other. But this would mean that Ukraine would have to invade part of Russian territory, and clearly they have decided not to do that.

But with the grain deal breaking down, and the missile fight in Crimea and the Ukrainian ports, and also the Ukrainians sending sea-going drones to blow up that Kerch bridge, perhaps we are going to see the war taking on a naval aspect. Nobody has sunk an international ship yet.

Think back to Hitler’s U-boat war and the massive sinking of ships that took place then. Nowadays, ships are much bigger, and the sinking of even one ship would be a huge disaster. Modern ships are in no way prepared or able to survive any kind of real attack by a navy or a torpedo or a missile.

Both sides have now threatened to sink civilian ships. But we would have to see who is willing to actually sink such a ship. I think both sides are not keen to do it. In this global world, shipping is now so important that anyone who sinks a ship would seriously impact trade.

I think, if each side is desperate enough, this would be a valid way to expand the war. This would be relatively simple and it would hurt each other.

But both of them are very dependent on those ships.

So it remains to be seen which side dares to up the ante to sinking a ship.

I think the sinking of even one ship would cause MASSIVE SHOCKWAVES and then that will impact shipping. Of course, people can adapt and use smaller ships and still strike deals. But it would be a fascinating step forward.

Even though Ukraine does not have a navy to speak of, they did capture Snake Island and they did sink that Russian battleship. So with missiles, drones and even aircraft, they could engage in some fighting, and while the Russians, on the face of it, have the edge, it could be very fascinating.

For me, watching globalism break down is better.

Strictly speaking, if this war could end soon, that would be best for everyone, but I am enjoying the impact of this war on the THIRD WORLD and believe it or not but CHINA is the biggest importer of Ukrainian Grain!!!!