THE ISRAEL WAR: WILL IT ESCALATE? ASSESSMENT OF NUCLEAR WAR AND CONVENTIONAL WAR

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THE ISRAEL WAR: THE NEW FRONT: LEBANON IN THE NORTH

In recent days, pagers and walkie talkies that Hezbollah were using exploded mysteriously killing some people and injuring perhaps 200. This seems to have been a MOSSAD trick.

Israel has been launching heavy air strikes into Lebanon and they’ve been trying to kill senior Hezbollah leaders.

Israel has fought inside Lebanon in the past, and even been there for long periods of time. Keep in mind that Israel and Lebanon and Gaza are all very small territories by South African and American standards. The distances are very tiny.

South Africa, for example, is 55 times bigger than Israel. All of Israel could probably fit in the distances of Johannesburg to Pretoria – sort of.

Despite the tiny size of Israel, Lebanon and Gaza, the Israelis are very limited in their ability to move. If they move into Lebanon then they would find themselves yet again fighting in urban areas and getting stuck there. In the past they fought there for a long period of time. Lebanon, no doubt is not interested in war. But Hezbollah as an Iranian Proxy army can fight there and can use Lebonese territory for long.

Despite the immense technological superiority of Israel in all forms of warfare, including tremendous air, tank and artillery fire power, Israel really can’t do much.

The Israelis are trying to provoke everyone into fighting them, and for them, fighting on the defensive would be easy and to their advantage.

But their enemies like Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Houthis, etc are even more limited in what they can do. They CANNOT invade Israel. At best they can use low tech rockets to fire into Israel.

Both sides are therefore stuck and an all out victory for either side is impossible. All the Israelis can do is to try and kill as many of their enemies as possible and hope that they will lose the will to fight. But this does not seem very likely.

It is in many respects a rather pointless war.

An important point is that despite massive efforts by Israel to starve or kill the people of Gaza, they have massively failed. They also are not in any better position strategically. They’ve not arrived at a military solution to the Gaza conflict and there is even less reason to believe they can do better in Lebanon.

It is important to note that over the decades of fighting, that despite massive weaponry and technological superiority that Israel is now more limited in what it can achieve militarily than it was in the 1950s to 1970s. From the 1980s onwards, their edge over the Muslims has dwindled more and more.

Interestingly, due to the tiny size of the areas, nuclear weapons of some kind of mass chemical and biological weapons would actually have a real effect.

In this regard, Israel is constantly fearing that Iran will get nuclear weapons. If Iran got even one nuclear bomb and if they could get it to Israel via a ballistic missile, they could actually kill a lot of people. But they would not be able to destroy Israel. To really destroy Israel they would probably need a dozen nuclear bombs that could explode in cities.

The CIA and MOSSAD have spent decades using dirty tricks to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons. There doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe that Iran will successfully get a nuclear weapon in our life times.

Israel does have nuclear weapons, and could wipe out Lebanon or Gaza using nuclear explosions, but due to the American rules of war, this would never be allowed.

The current conflict is thus basically a huge waste of money and weaponry. In terms of the war of words, Israel has lost that too. Netanyahu can fight all he wants, but he’s very limited in what he can achieve. He can fight for years if he wishes, and it will NOT change the strategic situation at all.

The Muslims have definitely won this round and if they continue fighting, they could actually wear the Israelis down and tire them over a long period of time. Neither side can win but the Muslims can come out of this the "moral winners". Neither side can gain ground. Neither side can destroy anything of real significance.

Israel can engage in the war due to massive US support. If Israel ever lost US support, then Israel would be in serious trouble. That situation might occur decades from now.