Quick Update of the Ukraine War: NATO view and what Russia admitted to – What to expect in 2023

(005320.38-:E-003569.93:N-HO:R-SU:C-30:V)   

[This is a quick summary of the Ukraine war from NATO's viewpoint and Russia's viewpoint. The war will remain intense in 2023. However, the Russians seem to have admitted that they know that they CANNOT win this quickly. So it will be a long term slogging match. The Russian plan is to hang in there for a long time (several years). It seems to me – and this is my analysis – that the West, especially the USA will support this war in 2023 and 2024. I think the Russians will get their chance to see weakening Western support in 2025. I think that this intensity is related to Biden. These are my guesses. The other possibility to keep in mind is that Ukraine is not stupid and they do have some high tech home weapons industries. They are learning all the time. So even if the West backs off in 2025 and thereafter, Ukraine might be able to hold the Russians back or at least lose slowly. This war is truly bogging down as I warned, but the Russians are definitely in the fight. The West's attempts to undermine Putin's internal power seems to me to have largely FAILED. So Putin is still in the fight and there seems to be no indication that he is going to lose power. Jan]

Here is the relevant summary:
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the Russo-Ukrainian War is in a “decisive phase” on January 15.[6] Stoltenberg told German news outlet Handelsblatt on January 15 that NATO countries recognize the current situation and must “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win.”[7] Stoltenberg’s statement supports ISW’s January 15 assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to take decisive strategic action in 2023.[8] Stoltenberg’s statement does not entail that the war is in its final phase or that Russian forces are planning to employ all available resources in impending actions. Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications representative Andriy Yusov remarked on January 15 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has recognized that Russian forces cannot take Ukraine quickly and is considering waging a drawn-out war of attrition.[9] ISW noted on January 15 that the Kremlin retains its long-term maximalist goals to seize Ukraine and is likely considering multiple courses of action to achieve those goals.[10]

Source: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2023