Jan’s Analysis of the State of the Ukrainian Invasion of Russia

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[These are some notes I made based on what I assess for today. Jan]

o The Russians continue to make huge, rubbish claims that all the troops in Russia are not Ukrainians but that they are NATO soldiers from several countries. The Russians love to talk up a storm about how many enemies they are apparently fighting.

o Belgorod: Russians declare a state of Emergency in this region now.

o Ukrainians control over 70 communities/villages in Russia.

o They claim to control 1,000 Square KM of Russia.

o 120,000 Russians have been evacuated.

o The Russians have begun digging long trenches quite far away from where the Ukrainian troops are.

o Ukrainians had claimed to have captured up to 2,000 Russians – though this number is not certain

o NB: I don’t buy the "Land Swap" theory that Urkain is seizing this land to later swap it during negotiations. I am totally convinced that the real purpose for this is that it is a MILITARY EXPERIMENT AT DIVERSION BASED ON TACTICS LEARNED FROM PREVIOUS RAIDS AS WELL AS UKRAINIAN EXPERIENCES FIGHTING RUSSIA. It is my view that they are sure, they can put up a stiff fight against the Russians while slowly retreating, over a long period of time. Their goal is to make it as difficult as possible for as long as possible, for Russia to seize it’s territory back. I think their goal is to bog the Russians down and to cause them a lot of casualties over a period of weeks or even months (if they can manage it). This is NOT just politics – THIS IS A MILITARY EXPERIMENT. We will know in the coming weeks or, perhaps months, whether it has been successful. At this time it is looking very good so far.

o The Russians have been fighting and throwing in units to fight the Ukrainians and the Ukrainains have taken some light losses, but the quality of Russian troops that have been sent in are conscripts and other low quality troops. The Ukrainians are still advancing at a slow pace. They are still capturing territory.

o The heavy Russian counter-attacks have not started yet. Today Putin appointed a new commander to specifically fight and push the Ukrainians out of Russia.

o The Russians have NOT yet pulled reserves out of the main front line inside Ukraine. This is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT for the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are no doubt hoping that if they can put up enough of a heavy fight inside Russia, that eventually Russia will have no choice but to pull troops out from the main battle zones inside Ukraine. I think the Ukrainians are quite confident that they can bleed Russia and cause this to happen.