IMPORTANT: DAY 50: UKRAINE WAR UPDATE: Kursk – New Russian counter-attack coming…

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It’s been 50 days since the Ukrainians invaded Kursk. I now have more accurate information regarding the biggest Russian counter attack which fizzled out several days ago. The Russians had a total of 41,000 troops in Kursk when they launched their counter attack to recapture some villages. It’s hard to assess, but my best guess is that the Russians grabbed back 10% to 15% of the Kursk region the Ukrainians had conquered. Then their attack fizzled out.

The Russians are now gathering 60,000 troops for the next counter offensive. This is in line with what I wrote weeks ago where I mentioned that the Ukrainians know that they can put up a really stiff fight. The question has been, how long can the Ukrainians hold on to this territory? Well, as things stand, it’s looking good for them. This battle is causing the Russians to have to send more and more men to fight the 10,000 to 15,000 Ukrainian troops that were sent there. I have mentioned that the Ukrainians are better troops and so for the Russians to beat them they need to gather a lot more troops. 60,000 seems to be about the right amount they need. But, maybe, even this amount is not enough.

I want to describe the nature of the fighting in Kursk, because it is very different to the rest of the war elsewhere.

In Kursk so far, the Ukrainians have not resorted to static warfare and to trenches yet – although both sides have already dug trenches in their rear. The actual fighting is far in front of the trenches and the fighting is very mobile. There’s a lot of movement.

When the Russians launched their counter attack, the Ukrainians began a small breakthrough into Russia from even further West! They were trying to break into other territory so they could hit the Russians from the side or even behind. That little salient still exists.

After the Russian counter attack wherein they seem to have seized 2 villages, the Ukrainians attacked eastwards and captured 2 new Russian villages. The Kursk battle is very mobile and it looks like it will take the Russians quite a long time to get a grip on this situation. This looks as if this could take them until 2025 to truly make headway. I’m watching this closely.

In the east of Ukraine, where the Russians were trying to get to Prokorovsk, they have been fighting in many places and trying to break out in several different areas. So far, most of their moves have only resulted in small gains.

Near Kharkiv, the 2nd biggest Ukrainian city, is a small area where the Ukrainians chased the Russians out.

The Russians managed to capture a big mine dump in the area where they are fighting towards Prokorovsk. But this is not much of an advance. They are still basically 8km from Prokorovsk.

That’s the current state of the war on the ground.

There has been talk of a Ukrainian ballistic missile being developed, but we have no idea how many weeks or months it will be before it is finally ready to go into action.