2005: The Myth that Mugabe’s Death will change things… MY PREDICTION CAME TOTALLY TRUE
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[I was way ahead of everyone in my assessments which proved to be true. He eventually died and, exactly as I have been saying, nothing changed. Those communists are still in power and nothing changed at all. South Africa will be the same. Jan]
[I’ve been doing some thinking about the situation in Zimbabwe, and I’d like to add another angle.
It is commonly believed that Mugabe’s death will allow things to change in Zim.
I find it hard to understand this viewpoint. Yes, Mugabe is THE MAN, who owns/runs/controls Zimbabwe – make no mistake.
But, Mugabe has done all he can to entrench Zanu(PF) – with his Generals backing them with Military Force if necessary.
Mugabe is by far the superior intellect and mind in Zimbabwe. There is no question about that. He is an old, cunning warrior and he’s not going to be knocked down by some yuppie.
But, even if Mugabe is gone, the entire Zanu(PF) structure still sits there with its monopoly on the Government and the Military.
Do you really think that when Mugabe is dead that they will all roll over and let the MDC or anyone else just walk in?
I think not. I think they will continue to use the same tactics they’ve used all along. I think they will fight just as fiercely to keep the status quo. They might not be as intelligent as Mugabe, but they will nevertheless hold the reins and mechanisms of power.
Obviously, Mugabe’s death will open the prospect that Zanu(PF) will be weaker and thus ripe for the plucking. But Mugabe’s death alone cannot lead to change of any sort.
I believe however, that if the opposition is not prepared to fight a Civil War against Mugabe now, they will have to reassess that situation after Mugabe’s death. I think even then, they’ll be sitting empty-handed.
I think change in Zimbabwe can only come about with a Civil war. If that Civil war is not today, nor next year, nor when Mugabe dies, then it will have to come 20 years later. Jan]
Source: http://archive.africancrisis.info/?p=107129
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