Ukraine War: Putin can only win under these conditions…
I’ve been debating with some people who’ve been watching the Ukraine war. My personal interest remains city fighting because that is going to be important for Whites for survival actually, including us in South Africa. So this is something I’m watching intensely.
I’m very pleased to see how the Russians are struggling to take the cities. It should also make people look in awe at the toughness of the Germans to even take and conquer cities in WW2. These days, people are very weak by comparison.
Anyhow, the Russians are shitting bricks in trying to move forward. I’m amazed that they have failed so much in the cities.
The other issue is the armour, and the tanks.
Militarily, Putin is in trouble. He has made a bunch of mistakes, and he is now experiencing what Clausewitz called the "Friction of War".
So is there a way Putin can still win? Well, as I see it, Putin can only win if the Ukrainians themselves collapse in a non-military way. That’s the only hope for Putin, because militarily, he’s screwed. I will return to his problems later.
For Putin to win any of the following need to happen:-
o The Ukrainians must starve
o Or the Ukrainians need to have their electricity or fuel cut off
o Or the Ukrainians just need to become depressed and surrender.
o Will the Ukrainians have the will to fight 5 months from now?
I think Putin’s best hope is to target infrastructure in order to win. He basically needs to win "The American/British way" – that was used in WW2. By that I mean he must destroy the infrastructure and collapse the ability of the Ukrainians to function. That is his only hope.
Unless he goes nuclear, which I can’t see happening.
Militarily, Putin is in deep, deep trouble.
At the pace his troops are going, they could easily be fighting in Kyiv a year from now. Maybe even longer.