The Ukraine war has run quite long now. The big goalpost is 6 months. What is the morale like and the situation like after 6 months. Most people did not expect Ukraine to last a week originally.
It looks to me as if they will be fighting right into the winter.
The Ukrainians are very concerned about their ability to fight in winter. I would have thought that for them and the Russians that they’re used to the climate, but it seems as if the Ukrainians are somewhat concerned about fighting in the winter.
However, as a student of military history, I can tell you that fighting will slow down a lot in winter.
So the borders and the situations as they exist by the end of summer will likely remain relatively fixed.
So there’s about another 3 months of fighting that can take place, and things will get slower and slower because of all the difficulties of fighting in the extreme cold.
The Russians currently are on a "pause". They’ve not stopped fighting totally, but they have been slowing down.
If the Russians were doing great, they would not be doing their pause. The fact that the Russians are pausing is a sign that they have taken quite a beating. This has not been a walk-over for the Russians. They’ve taken some serious losses in men and equipment.
We will have to see how the Ukrainians stand up to the conflict when the cold settles in. The Russians don’t seem to have any problems with the weather.
There are many questions as to exactly where both sides stand in terms of losses.
I have wondered if the winter might actually benefit the Ukrainians in giving them a breather.
This war looks like it will be a long war. It will definitely continue into 2023.