Quick Thoughts: What is Putin’s Game Plan in Ukraine? – This is NOT WW3, nor even WW2

I wanted to take a look at what Putin did on the first day of his attacks.

As usual, nothing changes, the world is the same place it’s always been.

There is no difference between Putin’s cruise missiles and the canons of European kings. On canons in the past they were inscribed with the message: “This is the argument of Kings”. (I’m paraphrasing – it’s not an exact quote). But WAR is the last word of the powerful. And Putin is doing this right.

This is not WW3, nor even close to WW2. The scale of the forces is not the same. The only credible number I can come up with regarding Putin’s forces is that he has 130,000 troops. But from what I heard yesterday, he only authorised 10,000 troops along with tanks to attack. That is one division. This is nothing like the HUNDREDS of divisions that Hitler and Stalin were using in WW2. So what we have are highly specialised weapons and troops, but not the VOLUME of Hitler and Napoleon and Pagan wars.

Putin’s cruise missiles are very cool I must say. Why is Putin hitting in all the places he has? This is very interesting. Putin is engaging in surgical attacks across Ukraine. It appears as if he is destroying MILITARY TARGETS. He seems to be making surgical strikes to break critical military-related targets.

What does NOT make sense is that he has 130,000 troops and the Ukraine has 44 million people. The Ukrainians could, in theory, mobilise at least 1 million troops. The territory is large, and if they mobilised all their reserves, Putin would have a long fight ahead. People who live in a nation have a home ground advantage. I will return to this topic. I can’t see how Putin can take over Ukraine with only 130,000 troops, if the locals resist and fight. He does have a much bigger military. He does have far better weapons, especially in the areas that count: Air, missiles, artillery and tanks.

The Ukrainians have not done badly. They’ve already shot down 5 aircraft/helicopters on the first day.

This is NOT a Hitler scale invasion.

But Putin is playing with much greater force than is normal.

The USA, along with it’s Jews and perhaps even Israel, have been encroaching on Ukraine which has for centuries been ruled by Russia.

Ukraine wants to join NATO. If it succeeds, then Putin would have the USA, UK and Western Europe on his doorstep. This IS a serious threat to him.

If he’s truly bold he can try to seize all of the Ukraine back. But I can’t see that being an easy move, especially if the Ukrainians begin arming en masse and fighting.

It would be a much bigger war than, say Afghanistan, where the Russians fought. Ukraine has 44 million people. Even with inferior weapons, they would kill a LOT of Russians.

I can’t see that Putin is ready for a war that would last years and incur lots of casualties.

What does work for Putin is that Ukraine is NOT IN NATO NOW.

It seems that Putin’s demands are that Ukraine NOT join NATO. The seizure of Eastern Ukraine seems to be a permanent affair because that area is more Russian.

I think Putin wants to scare the Ukrainians into not daring to join NATO.

America and NATO are pretty useless I must say.

If the USA were to actually fight, using American methods as honed in the middle East America could tear up the Russian forces. But it looks as if pathetic Jewish America is keen to sneak around and do sneaky politics but they’re not going to go toe to toe with Russia – and Putin knows it.

In a nutshell, Ukraine is critical to Putin. It is on his doorstep, and he has the means and the motivation to dig his heels in. But whether he is willing to wage a full scale war to fully occupy Ukraine – I do have doubts about it.

So I would say: His goal is to scare the Ukraine big time, while at the same time harming their ability to mobilise to fight him. THIS IS NOT THE SAME SCALE AS WW2. This is much lower intensity.

But Putin has been pushed into a corner. He is coming out fighting. But I don’t think he will go all the way.

As for people who think this is going nuclear and WW3. Chill.

Putin might want to get Ukraine back slowly, over time like he did with Crimea. But Ukraine is big.

And a population of 44 million Whites is not to be toyed with. They can make his life hard.

The main WEAKNESS of Ukraine seems to be LACK OF PROPER WEAPONS. If the Ukrainians had access to proper, modern weapons, they could make Putin’s life very nasty, and those tanks and planes could be seriously damaged and destroyed.

I will say the Ukrainian shooting down of those 5 aircraft today does show that they are not totally toothless.

They have the ability to fight an almost endless guerilla war. Putin would need a LOT more than 130,000 troops in order to occupy Ukraine.

I think Putin is merely scaring them, while he grabs a bigger piece of the pie. He might seize chunks of territory and keep it.

The biggest weakness I see is that Kyiv, the capital, of 3 million people, is very close to Belarus. That would be a BIG WIN if Putin could seize that. That could mess things up for the Ukraine. But to fight and occupy a city of 3 million people is no joke, even if, they aren’t that sophisticated. Would Putin actually attack Kyiv? I don’t think that is something he would do lightly.

But his main goal, and he will pursue this, is to keep Ukraine out of NATO. NATO is moving into the “Russian Empire” and into “the Soviet Union”.

Putin’s drawing the line. For him, this would be akin to invasion, and history would be on his side.

Forget about nukes raining down, or WW3 or the end. Nope. This is a limited war. A negative for Putin is that if he does a partial invasion, and stops, it does give the Ukrainians time – years in fact – to improve their defences.

I think if the Ukraine backs away from NATO then he will have achieved his goal, and he will grab and seize some chunks of Ukraine, but he will leave a huge portion of it alone. Those are some thoughts on the matter.