Putin seems to be pushing and rushing his forces forward in order to be able to claim some kind of "victory" by 9th May. It is NEVER EVER good to run military operations based on political reasons. You just get more of your own troops KILLED. It will not help the Russian forces.
I see that they estimate that 20,000 Syrians and other mercenaries might enter the Ukraine war, fighting for Putin.
Putin’s biggest win will be Mariupol, but Mariupol should have fallen days ago. Yet, amazingly, some final defenders are holding out in a huge factory complex despite being shelled by heavy artillery and even being bombed. Mariupol could fall any day, and it’s been like this for several days and yet the Ukrainians are holding out. The vast majority of Mariupol is in Russian hands. But the Russsians are struggling with this one final area and it’s bleeding them.
In Mariupol, it seems at least 21,000 civilians have died! That is hectic.
Once they win there, the Russians will be able to move another 15,000 troops to the main battle area.
The Russians did capture one village so far.
Whatever the Russians capture, they are basically having to shell the towns and cities to pieces. So whatever they are winning, is not in good condition. The Ukrainians are making them pay dearly for it.
The Russians are attempting to encircle Ukrainians who are in the North Eastern Corner of Ukraine. If any of you have watched my videos on "Strategy Versus Tactics" you’ll see that Putin’s forces are suffering from a bad case of "Strategy" and "Strategy" is not working, while the Ukrainians are functioning on "tactics”.
So the Russians might be planning and wanting to encircle a chunk of the Ukrainian Army, but they are having such a hard time that it’s unlikely, and military analysts say that even if they encircle the Ukrainian troops, it is very likely that the Ukrainians can even break out of the trap.
It’s not going well for Putin.
The main problem of the Ukraine war, as I see it, is that it has many negatives for Europe who never wanted this conflict to begin with. This will be causing problems and major costs for Europe for years to come.
But I must say, the Ukrainians have certainly slowed the Russians to a snail’s pace. However, if the West or Europe were to slow down or cut off the arms, the Ukrainian resistance would collapse and Russia would win easily. But it seems the West is locked into this. So Putin will bleed.
Encircling troops is a thing that Hitler’s Wehrmacht did with consummate ease. They conducted vast encirclements, of up to a million or so troops at a time. Just amazing stuff. Well, Putin can’t encircle even tiny armies. He’s battling like crazy.
The most important takeaway is that Putin is pushing his forces ahead, needlessly when they are damaged and not properly ready to get into battle. This is not good. This is a bad way to fight.
The next week or two could be very interesting because the Russian attack has begun and we should be seeing more and more troops being fed into the battle on the Russian side.
The next 3 weeks could be interesting as Putin tries to reach objectives and try to claim some kind of victory after his Kyiv flop.