I was watching an interesting discussion by a former head of MI6. MI6 is Britain’s CIA. He said that Ukraine cannot resist the Russians. He says that they will survive for "several weeks" before Russia totally conquers them.
Several weeks sounds like a couple of months.
Based on this, I had wondered if the 6 month rule applies. In conflicts where a very powerful nation invades a much smaller White nation and crushes them, there seems to be a 6 month rule. When the Soviet Union invaded Finland in 1939, they lasted 6 months. When the British Empire invaded the Boers, the conventional war lasted 6 months. After that, for 18 months, the Boers fought a guerilla war.
So I’m wondering if they are expecting Ukraine to survive, say, 3-6 months?
The MI6 man said that Russia has tremendous weapons and that they could and probably would, shoot a place like Kyiv into rubble.
What I find interesting though is that Ukraine has a population of 44 million Whites. And the Afghans fought and defeated the Russians after almost a decade of war. So can the Ukrainians defeat the Russians through guerilla war?
It seems as if the Western military people don’t expect Ukraine to last long.
I am wondering though, if the Ukrainians could last longer than 6 months. Perhaps 9 or 12 months?
I am still not impressed with the rate of advance of the Russians. The Russians are moving slower than Hitler’s forces moved. Can you believe that Napoleon with wagons and horses actually invaded Russia faster than Hitler’s Panzers? Well, Putin is going the slowest of the lot.
And if you are slow, militarily, that is always very bad.
So judging by what the former head of MI6 says, I think he is expecting Ukraine to fall this year, most definitely.
I would say, if the Ukrainians can last 9 months or more, then that’s a really good sign regarding their capabilities. If they don’t make it 6 months, then it means they are useless.
At this point, many things seem to indicate to me that the Ukrainians are fighting very well, given what they have.
But, can the Ukrainians win? Well, as other Generals have said: Even if Putin wins, can Russia hold on to it? And that is where the guerilla war can destroy Putin and Russia. If the Ukrainians can keep fighting guerilla style, then this can run for years and the Ukrainians should be able to defeat the Russians in the end.
I think that if the Ukrainians can keep going … Perhaps they can throw the Russians out in say, 5 years.
These are pure guesses. But you do have 44 million people there. The odds are really on their side. If the Afghans could win, then it will be MUCH EASIER for the Ukrainians to win. Much easier.
The whole issue is: Home ground advantage … fighting on your own soil.
They should eventually be able to get their country back.