I’ve been following the Ukraine war, and it’s getting ever more interesting. There are many fascinating lessons on Western war that are coming up. This is all very interesting and useful for all White males, because WAR is going to be a very important part of all our future survival.
The first and biggest, and most surprising defeat the Russians suffered was when 50,000-60,000 Russians in big armoured columns tried to encircle Kiev, the capital. They were driven back with very heavy losses. Both sides are hiding the exact extent of their deaths, but you are looking at a lot of dead.
The Ukrainians have probably lost at least 15-20,000 men KILLED, and twice that number injured. The Russians have probably lost 25,000+ men KILLED and twice that number injured.
The Russian Army is in BIG TROUBLE. The fight the Russians got is completely beyond the scale they were expecting. The Russian army is actually BREAKING. Morale is down and it’s possible that Russians might even have shot some of their own officers and that others have refused to fight and that others have deserted. Just as important is that the Russian army has taken incredible losses. Even pro-Russian bloggers with military experience are finding that they have to admit that the Russian army is flopping and failing. The Russians have begun to lose confidence in themselves. Putin may also be very out of touch with what is going on, on the ground. He may think things are better than they are.
The Ukrainians have got "guerillas" who are able to operate in all kinds of terrain. This is a whole other game, and this too lends itself to serious long term problems for the Russians.
The common White Ukrainians are motivated by raw HATRED of the Russians. People forget that Ukrainians were starved to death in the time of Jewish Bolshevik rule.
Another indication that the Russians are sucking in the war has been the battle in Mariupol at the Azovstal steel facility. That battle has raged for WEEKS LONGER than expected. The Russians threw every weapon they could into that battle, and they struggled. The outnumbered Ukrainian troops inside survived endless bombings and attacks from aircraft, troops and tanks. They were expected to collapse weeks ago, and they are only now near collapse.
After the hard fought and very surprising and unexpected victory at Kiev, where the Ukrainian army showed it’s real potential, the Ukrainians went on a good offensive around the 2nd biggest city. They’ve won that battle in recent weeks. Khakiv, is near the border with Russia and near a very important Russian staging post.
The Ukrainians threw the Russians back and the Russians, smelling the inevitability of defeat, retreated of their own accord. But the Russians are now heading into a very tight and nasty spot.
The Russian attempts at their own advances have been mostly a flop. The Russians tried to mimic the tactics of the wonderful German Wehrmacht in WW2 by engaging in all kinds of bold pincer movements to encircle Ukrainian troops. When big encirclements failed, they tried smaller pincer movements. And all of them are failing. Russian movements are getting ever slower.
Further south the Russians are going on the defensive and are digging trenches and building concrete defenses.
While Russian attacks are resulting in less and less successes, the Ukrainians are getting better at offensives.
The Russian defeat at Kharkiv is opening up strange new possibilities never seen before. And this is where it’s getting interesting.
The Ukrainians appear to be getting ready for their Third offensive. The Ukrainians are staying true to proper military procedure and focusing all their energy in one area at a time. This is the opposite of Putin’s silly moves at the beginning when he tried Russian "shock and awe" by attacking on many different fronts, not expecting resistance.
Very close to the east of Kharkiv are the main lines of communication (roads) that are used to supply a lot of the Russian army in the north and north east of Ukraine. The Ukrainians have fought right close to the Russian border, but they are very close to those GLOCS (Ground Lines of Communication).
These GLOCS lead to Izyum and other areas in the east, all of which are fighting the Ukrainians. The Russians had seized a lot of ground around Izyum.
If the Ukrainians attack Izyum from the West they are well placed to start slicing into the GLOCS. In short, the Ukrainians could cut off the lines of supply of big chunks of the Russian army. If they cut their supply lines then they would run out of ammunition and fuel and big chunks of the Russian army to the east of Izyum could stop functioning properly.
I suspect that the Russians will do better when they fight on the defensive. So we’ll have to see how it goes for them, but even so, they have lost lots of ground anyway. Even if they dig in, they might still be driven out.
The capture of Izyum and the driving of Russians out there is not as important, in my view, as cutting the GLOCS. This could be extremely interesting. If the Ukrainians attack Izyum and the GLOCS, we might see quite a large chunk of the Russian army being forced to fall back. What I’m not sure of, is whether the Ukrainians might end up capturing lots of equipment because they will have run out of fuel. And, how much of the Russian front will collapse due to lack of supplies?
Therefore the Izyum offensive could be quite a fascinating offensive where we might see much bigger chunks of territory being lost by the Russians. What is at stake is mostly the territory seized by the Russians along the north and north eastern edges.
The Russians might lose a big section of recently conquered territory.
Another thing is that both the Ukrainian and Russian armies have fought a lot and taken a lot of losses. The Ukrainians seem to be able to continue forward despite the hard fighting and hard losses. But the Russians seem to be struggling.
There is a possibility that in 3 months time that a huge chunk of the Russian army will be on the edge of desertion as well as refusing to fight.
A collapse of morale is a huge factor in intensive, Western style of warfare, and the Russians may reach that point in 3 months time.
Like I’ve mentioned, even pro-Russians are beginning to lose faith in the Russans and the Russians themselves are struggling to recover from the beatings they’re taking.
This is going to get very interesting. The Russians could be in for a horrible year, and even the territory that the Russians have controlled for several years now, could be lost.
I did post a military assessment where they said that Putin might just declare these parts of Ukraine like Donbas, Crimea, etc to be a part of Russia and perhaps threaten any attack with tactical nukes. The Russians are in a very desperate space, and it’s just getting worse.
It could be a very exciting year, and my previous analysis that the Ukrainians might actually drive the Russians out of ALL OF UKRAINE still stands. I gave my thoughts there, and my timeline there.
I think it’s very possible.