Ukraine War: Military Analysis: Will Putin use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon?

[This is a quote from one of the weekly military reports. I also can't see Russia going nuclear. Going nuclear is an ENORMOUS STEP. It's a step that can cause nuclear weapons to be fired back at Russia. It's an enormous move to make, and it's not worth the risk. The Russians, it seems, are ensuring that they don't scare America. You can see it in some of their communications with the USA. I don't think the Russians are crazy enough to fire any nukes. Even a small tactical nuke will set America and the West seriously on edge. Then it's not a child's game any more. There are many other ways to achieve the same goals without using nukes. Jan]

Here’s the military analysis regarding the nukes:-

The Kremlin remains unlikely to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine during this phase of the war. The Kremlin likely assesses that the use of a nuclear weapon would trigger greater NATO involvement in the war, making the Russian use of a nuclear weapon a net loss for Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denied that Russia would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and claimed that Russia is only considering using conventional weapons in statements on April 19 that Kremlin-run media outlets subsequently heavily promoted.[24] Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on April 20 that Russian law enforcement should investigate anyone who spreads disinformation about Russia considering the use of nuclear weapons and reiterated Lavrov‘s statement that Russia will only use conventional weapons in Ukraine.[25] State-run media outlets circulating her statement emphasized Russia’s signatory status on nuclear control treaties.[26] Two US officials “familiar with recent intelligence assessments” told CNN on April 20 that the United States has not seen any indicators of Russian preparations to use nuclear weapons.[27] The United States and its allies would almost certainly publicly warn of any indicators that the Kremlin was preparing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. The Kremlin likely seeks to avoid such a massive escalation that would likely lead to direct NATO involvement and instead seeks to frame itself as nonaggressive. The Kremlin will likely rely on conventional and possibly chemical weapons capabilities to achieve its objectives in Donbas. While we cannot completely rule out the Russian use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the Kremlin is highly unlikely to use one during this phase of the war.


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