Putin readying 700,000 troops for massive new offensive in weeks to cut off Ukraine from Europe and face down Nato – My Analysis

[These numbers appear to be too high. It does not seem as if he really has 700,000 troops ready. He might be in a position to have twice as many troops as he attacked with in 2022. Then there's the issue of Belarus. Will Belarus really invade? Will Russian and Belarus troops really attack? It seems as if Belarus has been very wary of going to war with Ukraine. Belarus is quite a small White country and their leader may be big pals with Putin but he seems wary of actually fighting Ukraine because Ukraine is stronger and much more populous than Belarus. If Putin can launch an invasion from Belarus with his own troops, that could be very interesting. I think of all the strategic moves Putin could make, that would be the biggest game changer. That would give him a chance to go for Kiev again. It does not seem to me that Belarus will want to fight alongside the Russians, but I think the Russians could invade from Belarus. My best guess is that Putin will invade with twice as many troops as he had, and he will fight from the East. But if Putin can launch an attack from Belarus, that could be very interesting and it would put a lot of new pressure on Ukraine. I think the 700,000 figure should be sliced in half. This article is overstating that number. Another key thing that shows Putin's weakness is that he has NEVER OFFICIALLY DECLARED WAR. That means that LEGALLY this is not an official WAR. So he does not have full "War Powers" in Russia. This is a sign of weakness. Jan]

RUSSIA is allegedly preparing for a new offensive that could see 700,000 soldiers pour into Ukraine.

Ukraine has been warning over the winter that Vladimir Putin’s forces will be gearing up for renewed attack in 2023.

It has been nearly 11 months since Mad Vlad invaded Ukraine – sending his forces pouring over the border to march on Kyiv.

But it was not the days-long "special military operation" Putin and his men hoped it would be.

And now more than 117,000 Russians are lying dead in the muddy battlefields of Ukraine.

The war has seen Vlad’s forces thrown back and any hopes of a quick victory have sunk to the bottom of the Black Sea.

But despite staggering losses – the Russian army is understood to be more than one million men strong, with another two million reservists who could called up.

And Putin’s defence boss Sergei Shoigu has announced plans to swell the number of active personnel to one and a half million from 2023.

With so many troops still ready to turned against Ukraine, there is still room for a major escalation by the Russians.

Putin’s future is now tied to his success or failure in the war – with rumours swirling around his health and his fears of a coup.

Kyiv has warned that Russia is preparing to call up another 500,000 conscripts to refresh its decimated military – in addition to 300,000 who were called up in October.

Russian outlet Volya Media reported that Russia could be gearing up for a new offensive involving up to 700,000 soldiers.

Volya’s report has not been confirmed by Russia, Ukraine or Western intelligence sources.

But it come amid flurries of speculation about what is going to happen next in the war – with Russia consistently on the back foot despite recent gains in Soledar.

It has been suggested Putin could announce a second wave of mass mobilisation to bolster his army and war games have been ongoing between Belarus and Russia.

Russian troops and forces continue to moved into the former Soviet state ruled by Europe’s last dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

And questions still remain if Putin will pressure Belarus into formally joining the war against Ukraine.

The outlet – which cites sources within the Russian military – claims that the new attack would focus on Lutsk and Lviv in western Ukraine.

Russia could be seeking to cut off the corridor which links Kyiv to the West by captured the area near the border with Poland.

And the mastermind of the new plan is reportedly General Valery Gerasimov.

It is widely reported that his appointment is believed to be the precursor to a new offensive – however that may look.

Gerasimov – the head of the general staff – was given direct control of Putin’s invasion, supplanting the previous commander "General Armageddon" Sergey Surovikin.

It has been reported elsewhere that Vlad has order Gerasimov to make significant progress by March – including seizing control of the Donbas by March.

Volya reported that Gerasimov believes attacking the western regions could end the war by forcing a surrender by Ukraine.

But as the last 11 months have shows – the Russians have consistently underestimated Kyiv and overestimated the ability of their crumbling forces.

Gerasimov’s plan is alleged to have been signed off by Putin.

And the general demanded to personally lead the operation so as not to repeat the failures in February.

It seems the plan is similar to what the Russians tried to do at the start of war, storm through Ukraine and knock them out in one decisive strike.

Gerasimov is reported to have been preparing soldiers in Belarus for the move on Lutsk and Lviv, and units stationed in Russia’s Belgorod region for a push on Kharkiv.

The new offensive reportedly could begin within a few weeks.

He always wanted to fight like in the Great Patriotic War [World War 2]," a source who personally knows Gerasimov was reported by Volya to have said.

"So that the divisions would go in the fields, the artillery would level the cities with the ground, and he would have hundreds, not tens of thousands."

The outlet closed its report by saying the carnage in Ukraine could reach a scale that has "not yet been seen since the beginning of the war" on February 24.

The report is not confirmed – but offers a chilling look at what Putin could be planning in a desperate bid to win – or at least progress in – the war and save his own skin.

Russia has however publicly announced plans to boost the size of its military in 2023 – going from around one million to 1.5million by 2026.

And Ukraine have consistently been warning of a new Russian offensive, with hero Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky calling on the West to send them more weapons.

"Russia is preparing a new effort to seize the initiative in the war," he said on Monday.

"This just highlights how important it is to coordinate our efforts…and expedite decision-making."

Britain continues to lead the way in arming Kyiv against Moscow, with a batch of Challenger 2 battle tanks due to be shipped to Ukraine.

And the Kremlin remains furious about the supply of weapons into Ukraine, calling the conflict a "hybrid war" with the West.

It is believed Russia could also use their capture of Soledar as a springboard for a new offensive in the south on Bakhmut.

Russia continues to terrorise Ukraine – leaving at least 60 people dead as they dropped a missile meant for sinking aircraft carriers on an apartment block in Dnipro.

And over the border, Putin was today laying flowers in St Petersburg as part of the 80th anniversary celebrations of the breaking of the siege of Leningrad in World War 2.

Speaking to veterans, he vowed to end the war in Ukraine.

Vlad said: " Everything we do today, including in a special military operation, is an attempt to stop this war.

"That is the meaning of our operation. And to protect our people who live there, in these territories."

US think tank The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Putin could announce a new mobilisation in days – or officially "declare war" on Ukraine.

ISW experts said Putin is fond of using symbolic dates to address the Russian people – and the anniversaries around Leningrad could be a perfect moment for Vlad.

The think tank also noted that Ukrainian and Western intelligence have also repeatedly warned of Putin’s mobilization preparations scheduled for mid-January.

Source: https://www.the-sun.com/news/7163186/putin-ukraine-russia-700000-troops/